Will Republicans Lose the House in 2014?

Posted on March 1, 2013 by

As we prepare for one manufactured republican crisis after another, remember the sliver lining.  Each stunt reinforces pubic perception of republicans as extremists and sells a whole generation of voters on the belief that the GOP is “out-of-touch with the American people.”

In fact, more than 60 percent of respondents in a recent poll agree with that statement.

This data prompted normally nonpartisan pollster Charlie Cook to conclude that this could be a period of hardening political preferences:

Over time, attitudes start to jell and, eventually, if the process is uninterrupted, gradually turn solid and very difficult to change. This holds true to a certain extent among all voters, but it particularly applies to young people. Americans tend to develop their political philosophy and partisan leanings in their teens and 20s; once they get into their 30s, they are less likely to change, and into their 40s and beyond, even less likely. That’s why we have generational voting patterns.

There’s every reason to believe that the sequester will be followed by a fight over the “continuing resolution” on the budget and then another debt ceiling blowout.  Democrats, if we’re smart and a little lucky, will have an historic opportunity to reinforce and expand the negative public sentiment surrounding republicans.

So even with Obama Administration officials acting a bit over-eager explaining the immediate consequence of sequester-driven budget cuts, we’re succeeding in pushing our opponents outside the margins.

The real test, of course, will be the 2014 congressional and state elections:

Whether we’ll be able to win back governorships and U.S. house seats and reshape the political landscape for the next 20 years.

Comments (3)

 

  1. nodrama says:

    The difficulty will be the gerrymandered Districts. One of the reasons politics are as hardened as they are on the Republican side is they feel their seats are safe. They are doing what their constituents, the under informed, want them to do.

  2. rod bradley says:

    As “nodrama” says. There isn’t a chance. Even if a bunch of republican voters stay away, the RNC will devastate any moderate republican or democratic candidate to protect their fiefdoms. Yes, they are outside the margins. But they don’t care. In fact even the president is more conservative than the majority of the populace on many issues. We have minority government, a president who isn’t particularly strong in controlling special interests (namely in the financial sector) and came late to realize you can’t negotiate with insanity without generating insane results.

    Our dysfunction is not curable without a change in the antiquated electoral system that makes absolutely no sense in a modern representative republic. That would require constitutional changes. The conservatives have made the constitution a biblical document (along with their perverse interpretation) and subject it to the priesthood of a conservative supreme court who distort its meaning to suit their purpose. Including the selection of the worst modern-day president in history.

    The entire concept of a senate with the same power given to a state that represents 10 percent of the people as one that represents less than .02 per cent is by itself an assurance, not of minority protection, but the potential for minority rule through filibuster and paralysis.

    And that’s the tip of the iceberg. The electoral college is rife for further distortions in the direction of a political minority forming an aristocracy of special interests.

    And we have an aging and tired populace who don’t have a great deal of political energy.

    Things are going to have to get far worse before they get better and some real leadership emerges.

  3. Gavin Koon says:

    From a Labor perspective, I would say if the GOP continues their current course they are likely to lose seats in the house. Just look at California. Given the obvious attempt at voter manipulation – I cannot wait for the Supreme Court response to Voting Act issue. Along with immigration, their thoughts on Medical and Social Security reform, the budget mess – when the economy is improving which is slowly devaluing the issue, and general mess within the party on what their platform is…. Only weakness for Labor, I do not yet see a strong Presidential contender for the Dems. (Hillary? Biden?)

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